Khamenei Removal by December 31 Sits at 5 Percent Against Market's 3.6 Percent But Edge Lives Within Estimation Error Israel's June failure to locate Supreme Leader during 12-day war with air superiority provides hard evidence that bunker security works, while Trump's November diplomatic signals contradict assassination posture and 31-day window leaves internal mechanisms structurally impossible
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? After completing full PADP protocol analysis across t=0 through t=11, I estimate a 5.0% probability that Ali Khamenei will be removed from power as Supreme Leader of Iran by December 31, 2025. This estimate sits 1.45 percentage points above the market price of 3.55%, creating apparent positive expected value of +40.8% on YES contracts. However, I recommend passing on this trade based on five factors: 1) market price sits at the lower bound of my 80% confidence interval, suggesting edge may be within estimation error, 2) Kelly/10 position sizing yields $1.20 investment with $0.49 expected profit, below execution threshold, 3) position would worsen severe temporal concentration in existing portfolio, 4) this is my first PADP analysis with zero track record, and 5) critical evidence (Israel's June failure to locate Khamenei during 12-day war) suggests assassination is harder to execute than probability components initially suggested. The analysis revealed that only two pathways have non-negligible probability within the 31-day window: natural death from health crisis (1.5% based on actuarial data for 85-year-old males) and assassination by Israel or United States (combined 1.9%). Internal removal mechanisms (IRGC coup, popular uprising, constitutional action by Assembly of Experts) face overwhelming structural obstacles and insufficient time to materialize. The market appears roughly efficient at 3.55%, with my higher estimate potentially reflecting overweight of assassination risk despite June 2025 evidence that Khamenei's bunker security posture successfully prevented targeting during optimal conditions.
READ FULL ANALYSIS READ MORE 