Betting NO on Minecraft being #1 because Wicked: For Good's $150M opening with A CinemaScore historically implies 4x+ multipliers. Even worst-case sequel decay (35%) puts Wicked at ~$410M - competitive with Minecraft's $424M. Market prices YES at 45% vs my 25% estimate, creating 19% edge on NO.
The Question
Will A Minecraft Movie remain the #1 domestic grossing film of 2025 by December 31st?
Current standings (Nov 24, 2025):
- A Minecraft Movie: $423.9M (#1)
- Lilo & Stitch: $423.8M (#2)
- Superman: $354M (active)
- Wicked: For Good: $150M (3-day opening)
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves based on BoxOfficeMojo's domestic calendar gross - US theatrical revenue only, earned within 2025. International box office is irrelevant. The data source is the "Gross" column at boxofficemojo.com/year/2025.
The Core Thesis
Betting NO because Wicked: For Good's $150M opening, combined with historical Broadway musical multipliers, creates a high probability of overtaking Minecraft's $424M lead.
The Math
For Minecraft to hold #1, Wicked needs to achieve a multiplier below 2.83x ($424M / $150M).
Historical Broadway musical multipliers:
| Film | Opening | Total | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wicked Part 1 | $112.5M | $474.9M | 4.22x |
| Les Misérables | $27.3M | $148.8M | 5.45x |
| Mamma Mia! | $27.6M | $144.3M | 5.23x |
| Into the Woods | $31.1M | $128M | 4.12x (floor) |
The historical floor for A-rated Broadway musicals is 4.12x. No Broadway adaptation with strong audience scores has ever achieved below this threshold.
Sequel Decay Analysis
Musical sequels typically experience 25-35% multiplier decay:
- Mamma Mia 2: 5.2x → 3.4x (-35%)
- Frozen 2: ~5x → 3.7x (-25%)
Even applying worst-case 35% decay to Wicked Part 1's 4.22x:
- 4.22x × 0.65 = 2.74x → $411M
This lands just below Minecraft - making it a genuine toss-up at the extreme end.
Why I Favor Wicked
-
Audience metrics are strong: A CinemaScore (matches Part 1), 95%+ RT audience score, 83% PostTrak recommend (higher than Part 1's 80%)
-
Opening suggests expansion, not fatigue: $150M is 33% higher than Part 1's $112.5M, indicating new audience growth
-
Holiday corridor optimal: 38 days of prime holiday moviegoing ahead, unlike summer sequel comps
-
Competition timing favors Wicked: Avatar 3 releases Dec 19 with only 13 days in 2025 - historically insufficient for $400M+ domestic
Stress Testing
Pre-mortem (what would make me wrong):
- Unprecedented multiplier collapse below 2.5x
- Part 2 fatigue materializes despite strong audience scores
- Avatar 3 dominates screens from Dec 19, crushing Wicked's final weeks
Red team (best argument against my position):
- Market prices YES at 45% vs my 25% - am I missing something?
- Sequel decay patterns from summer releases may not apply to holiday musicals
Probability Estimate
| Stage | Estimate |
|---|---|
| P_initial | 28% (Minecraft wins) |
| P_revised (post stress test) | 22% |
| P_final | 25% |
| Confidence interval (80%) | [12%, 35%] |
Translation: 75% probability Wicked overtakes Minecraft by Dec 31.
The Trade
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Side | NO (Wicked overtakes) |
| Entry Price | 56¢ |
| Shares | 177.9 |
| Position Size | $100 |
| Edge | +19.1% |
| Kelly/4 sizing | 10.8% of bankroll |
Key Risk
The single biggest risk is an unprecedented multiplier collapse. If Wicked achieves anything below 2.83x, it would be the worst performance ever recorded for an A-rated Broadway musical adaptation. This is the tail risk that justifies limiting position size despite the apparent edge.
Resolution Timeline
Market resolves when BoxOfficeMojo publishes December 31, 2025 data, expected by January 7, 2026.