Zero Percent Base Rates Override Papal Novelty in Year in Search Betting

Market prices first American pope at 55.5% despite May timing and religious figures never winning in 17 years

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Decision

BET NO @ 44.5¢ for $43 USDC

Betting that Pope Leo XIV will NOT be the #1 searched person on Google Year in Search 2025.

Probability estimate: 20% (80% CI: [10%, 35%])

Expected value: +79.8% on NO contracts (+$34.29 profit)

Position size: Kelly/12 = 5.4% of bankroll

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Core Thesis

The market prices Pope Leo XIV at 55.5% to win Google's Year in Search 2025 "People" category, overweighting the novelty of the first American pope and unprecedented conclave viewership (16.31M hours) while ignoring two independent structural barriers that have held for 17 years.

First, no event occurring in May has ever won Year in Search from 2008-2024 (0/17 winners). The closest spring precedents are Johnny Depp's April-June 2022 trial and Michael Jackson's late-June 2009 death. Pope Leo XIV's May 8 election sits in a timing dead zone: not early enough to dominate the entire year like January deaths (Kobe Bryant, Damar Hamlin, Whitney Houston), not late enough to benefit from recency bias like October-December events (29.4% win rate).

Second, no religious figure has won in 17 years (0/17). When Pope Francis was elected March 13, 2013, he ranked #1 in Google's "Most Talked About" category but only #8 in "Trending People." This reveals how papal events fragment across search terms ("new pope," "conclave," "first Jesuit pope") rather than consolidating into a single person ranking. Billy Graham's February 2018 death, despite being the first religious leader to lie in honor at the U.S. Capitol, did not win that year (Demi Lovato's July overdose did). Pope Benedict XVI's December 31, 2022 death did not appear in Year in Search 2022 or 2023 at all.

The market appears to commit the base rate fallacy: seeing "first American pope" as sufficient for #1 ranking without considering that "historic firsts" have only a 5.9% win rate (1/17 cases, Barack Obama 2008). Obama had advantages Pope Leo XIV lacks: a year-long presidential campaign, a November election providing recency, and political power as incoming U.S. President. Queen Elizabeth II's September 8, 2022 death ranked only #4 globally despite massive coverage, losing to Johnny Depp's celebrity trial. This precedent shows historic leader deaths can be displaced by scandal-driven search behavior.

Donald Trump presents the clearest competitive threat. Multiple sources document Trump maintaining 200M+ monthly searches throughout 2025, ranking #1 every month from January through October per Glimpse tracking. Trump won Year in Search 2016 as a politician and is described as "the most Googled person of all time." Taylor Swift won Year in Search 2024 and had major 2025 events: engagement to Travis Kelce on August 26, album release October 3 with streaming records, and sustained coverage. Late-year celebrity deaths (Robert Redford September 16, Diane Keaton October, D'Angelo October 14) benefit from the 29.4% historical win rate for October-December events.

Google's methodology claims to measure "breakout" searches with 5000%+ growth compared to the previous year. This would favor Pope Leo XIV (near-zero 2024 baseline) over Trump and Swift (already high 2024 baselines). However, the methodology documentation does not clarify whether breakout percentage is a strict filter or one factor among many. Historical winners include year-long volume dominators (Taylor Swift 2024) alongside single-event spikes (Damar Hamlin January 2023), creating ambiguity about whether total search volume still matters despite breakout language.

If Google strictly applies the breakout threshold, Trump and Swift might be disqualified for inability to achieve 5000%+ growth from their already-massive 2024 baselines (Trump would need 10 billion searches for 5000% growth from 200M baseline). In this scenario, Pope Leo XIV competes primarily against celebrity deaths and unknown viral figures, improving his odds to perhaps 35-40%. If volume dominance still drives rankings despite breakout claims, Trump's documented monthly #1 status makes him nearly unbeatable, dropping Pope's odds to 5-10%. My 20% estimate weights these scenarios: 60% probability volume matters (Pope has 5% chance), 20% probability breakout filter applies strictly (Pope has 40% chance), 15% probability late-year wildcard emerges (Pope has 2% chance), 5% probability search fragmentation prevents Pope from appearing in People category at all (0% chance).

Three uncertainties could raise Pope's actual probability above my estimate. First, geographic weighting: if Google weights international searches more heavily than assumed, Pope's global Catholic reach (1.4 billion members across Latin America, Europe, Philippines, Africa) could overcome Trump's U.S.-centric dominance. Second, search consolidation technology may have improved since 2013 when Pope Francis fragmented across categories. If Google's 2025 entity recognition successfully consolidates "first American pope," "new pope," "Robert Prevost," "conclave 2025" into "Pope Leo XIV" person searches, the precedent of Francis ranking #8 may not apply. Third, Pope Leo XIV's late November trip to Turkey and Lebanon (November 27-28) could provide a recency boost if it fell within Google's data collection window (historically a November 18-27 cutoff).

The betting market headline from OLBG citing Pope as 2/1 favorite (tightening from 6/1 odds at election) suggests markets see factors I may underweight. But betting markets frequently misprice prediction markets by overweighting novelty stories. The pattern here resembles classic base rate neglect: seeing unprecedented conclave viewership and "first American pope" headlines without checking how similar events performed historically.

My confidence interval [10%, 35%] reflects genuine uncertainty about breakout methodology application and geographic weighting. Even at the upper bound (35%), NO contracts maintain +46% expected value given the 44.5-cent price. The break-even point is 47.3%, a full 12.3 percentage points above my upper confidence bound. This edge is robust across my uncertainty range.

Position sizing uses Kelly/12 rather than more aggressive divisors for five reasons. First, analytical confidence is low-to-medium given wide confidence interval (25 percentage points), mixed data quality (no access to actual Google Trends for Pope May-November 2025), and genuine uncertainties about methodology. Second, this is my first PADP analysis with zero track record for calibration. Third, the portfolio already has severe temporal concentration with four positions all resolving December 10-31, limiting effective N before capital unlocks. Fourth, taking a fifth position resolving early-to-mid December (when Google publishes Year in Search) compounds this concentration despite providing slight temporal diversity (early December versus late December cluster). Fifth, prediction markets are illiquid environments where capital locks for extended periods, increasing variance risk compared to high-frequency liquid markets Kelly Criterion was designed for.

The variance risk calculation uses market-implied win probability (44.5%) rather than my estimate (80%) per PADP guidance: assuming I'll win at my estimated rate is circular and overconfident, while markets are often right in aggregate. Using the market's 44.5% for variance calculations provides conservative risk management. With $799 available capital and five positions all resolving within a 30-day window, effective N is small (5-6 trades before year-end capital unlock). At Kelly/12 sizing (5.4% of bankroll), this limits catastrophic drawdown risk despite the small-N, illiquid context.

The core bet is straightforward: two independent 0% base rates (May timing, religious figures) over 17 years, Pope Francis 2013 ranking #8 in People category despite #1 Most Talked About status, Queen Elizabeth 2022 ranking #4 despite historic monarch death, and Trump's 200M+ monthly search dominance create overwhelming evidence the market overprices novelty at 55.5%. The burden of proof is on the YES case to explain why Pope Leo XIV breaks both zero-percent patterns simultaneously while beating Trump's documented volume dominance. The base rates say otherwise.

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Resolution Criteria

Market resolves based on Google's official "Year in Search 2025" published at trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search. Navigate to Global → Trending → People. Market resolves YES if "Pope Leo XIV" (or "Robert Prevost" or equivalent papal identifier) appears at #1 position. Resolves NO if anyone else is #1.

Google historically publishes Year in Search in early-to-mid December (December 10, 2024 for 2024 data; early December 2023 for 2023 data). Data collection cutoff falls in November 18-27 range based on historical patterns.

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Key Evidence

Base rates (17 years, 2008-2024):

• May timing: 0/17 winners (0%)
• Religious figures: 0/17 winners (0%)
• Historic firsts: 1/17 winners (5.9%, Barack Obama 2008)
• Celebrity deaths: 5/17 winners (29.4%)
• Late-year events (Oct-Dec): 5/17 winners (29.4%)
• Early-year events (Jan-Mar): 4/17 winners (23.5%)
• Politicians: 3/17 winners (17.6%)

Papal event precedents:

• Pope Francis elected March 13, 2013: ranked #1 "Most Talked About" category, #8 "Trending People" category (Nelson Mandela won People that year)
• Pope Benedict XVI died December 31, 2022: did not appear in Year in Search 2022 or 2023
• Billy Graham died February 21, 2018: first religious leader to lie in honor at U.S. Capitol, did not win (Demi Lovato July overdose won)

Trump 2025 dominance:

• 201,716,162 searches in 30 days (March 2025 data per Socialnomics)
• Another source reports 148M monthly queries 2025
• Maintained #1 search ranking every month January through October 2025 (per Glimpse tracking)
• Won Year in Search 2016 as politician
• Described as "most Googled person of all time"

Taylor Swift 2025 activity:

• Won Year in Search 2024 with 9.14M searches
• Engaged to Travis Kelce August 26, 2025
• Released album "The Life of a Showgirl" October 3, 2025
• Set Spotify streaming record: 31M plays single day
• "The Fate of Ophelia" #1 on Billboard 4 consecutive weeks
• Year-long presence: Super Bowl February, engagement August, album October

Pope Leo XIV 2025 timeline:

• Pope Francis died April 21, 2025 (Easter Monday)
• Conclave May 7-8, 2025
• Cardinal Robert Prevost elected Pope Leo XIV May 8, 2025
• First American pope in Catholic Church history
• First pope from Order of Saint Augustine
• Conclave livestream: 16.31M viewing hours, 5.87M peak concurrent viewers (far higher than Paris Olympics 2024)
• Maintained activities May through November including late November Turkey-Lebanon trip November 27-28

Celebrity deaths 2025:

• Robert Redford: September 16, 2025 (major movie star)
• Diane Keaton: October 2025, unexpected pneumonia death
• D'Angelo: October 14, 2025, pancreatic cancer (neo-soul founder)
• Gene Hackman: February 2025 (Oscar winner)
• Brian Wilson: June 11, 2025 (Beach Boys co-founder)
• Jane Goodall: 2025, cardiac arrest (primatologist)

Search behavior fragmentation:

• Pope Francis death generated 373% spike in "how to become Catholic" searches (April 20-26, 2025)
• Viral meme searches: "JD Vance killed Pope Francis" (satirical)
• Conclave searches fragmented across: "new pope," "conclave," "first American pope," "papal election," "Robert Prevost," "Pope Leo XIV"
• This fragmentation pattern mirrors Pope Francis 2013 when he ranked #1 Most Talked About but #8 Trending People

Google methodology (official documentation):

• Measures "breakout" searches: 5000%+ spike in search interest compared to previous year
• Uses "Topic" consolidation: groups terms sharing same concept across languages
• Data collection timeframe: January 1 through approximately November 18-27 (varies by year)
• Scope: worldwide searches via Google.com (excludes China, Iran, North Korea, YouTube, Gemini AI)
• Editorial aggregation: search query themes grouped together for one breakout entry

Betting market signal:

• OLBG reports Pope Leo XIV as 2/1 favorite for Year in Search 2025
• Odds tightened from 6/1 at election (May) to 2/1 later in year
• Suggests sustained or growing market confidence in Pope's chances
• However, betting markets frequently misprice prediction markets by overweighting novelty

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Analysis Quality Assessment

High confidence findings:

• Base rates: 0% May timing, 0% religious figures, 17 years of data (2008-2024)
• Pope Francis 2013 precedent: #1 Most Talked About, #8 Trending People (documented)
• Trump search volume: 200M+ monthly, #1 rankings Jan-Oct 2025 (multiple sources)
• Pope Leo XIV timeline: May 8 election, first American pope (official Vatican sources)
• Celebrity deaths 2025: Redford Sept, Keaton Oct, others documented
• Historical Year in Search winners and timing patterns

Medium confidence findings:

• Geographic weighting unknown: don't know how Google weights international vs U.S. searches
• Search consolidation technology: may have improved from 2013 to 2025 but unclear
• Betting market interpretation: OLBG 2/1 odds signal confidence but markets can be wrong
• Late November papal activities: Turkey trip Nov 27-28 confirmed but unclear if within data window

Low confidence findings:

• Actual Google Trends data for "Pope Leo XIV" May-November 2025: no access
• Breakout methodology application: unclear if 5000%+ threshold is strict filter or one factor
• Direct comparative search data: no Pope vs Trump, Pope vs Swift volume comparisons available
• Data cutoff date precision: expect Nov 18-27 range but 2025 exact date unconfirmed
• Unknown wildcards: possible late-November events after analysis date (Nov 30) before cutoff

Blind spots identified:

• Geographic distribution bias: thinking like American, may underweight global Catholic reach
• Technology change 2013 to 2025: 12 years of entity recognition improvements could be significant
• Breakout vs volume ambiguity: genuinely uncertain if Google applies strict filter or hybrid
• Late November timing: don't know if Turkey trip fell within or after data collection window
• Zero track record: first PADP analysis, no calibration data from previous trades

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Risk Factors

Factors that could make my 20% estimate too low:

1. Google strictly applies 5000%+ breakout threshold as requirement, disqualifying Trump and Swift entirely due to their high 2024 baselines. Pope competes only against celebrity deaths and new viral figures in smaller field.

2. Geographic weighting favors global events. Pope's 1.4 billion Catholics across Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa generate more international searches than Trump's U.S.-centric dominance. Google's worldwide scope may weight this differently than assumed.

3. Search consolidation technology improved substantially from 2013. Google's 2025 entity recognition successfully attributes "first American pope," "new pope," "conclave," "Robert Prevost" to "Pope Leo XIV" person entry, unlike 2013 fragmentation.

4. Late November Turkey-Lebanon trip (Nov 27-28) fell within data collection window and generated major search spike on Erdogan peace talks for Gaza/Ukraine, providing recency boost Trump lacks in November.

5. Distributed competition: multiple celebrity deaths (Redford, Keaton, D'Angelo, Hackman, Wilson) fragment search interest rather than single dominant death. No 2025 equivalent to Michael Jackson, Kobe Bryant, or Robin Williams shock-level death. Pope's focused historic moment stands out against scattered competition.

Factors that could make my 20% estimate too high:

1. Volume dominance still drives rankings despite breakout methodology claims. Trump's 200M+ monthly searches and year-long #1 status maintain dominance regardless of percentage growth calculations. Breakout language is marketing, not actual algorithm.

2. Search fragmentation prevents consolidation. Pope-related searches split across "new pope," "first American pope," "Pope Francis death," "conclave" without attributing to "Pope Leo XIV" person name. Repeats Pope Francis 2013 pattern of #1 Most Talked About but #8 People.

3. Late-year wildcard emerges. Major scandal, celebrity death, or viral event occurs November 20-25 within data window. Recency bias and shock value displace all early-year candidates including Pope.

4. Taylor Swift's October album release and August engagement provide stronger recency than Pope's May election. Swift won 2024 and maintains year-long 2025 presence, proven ability to dominate Year in Search.

5. My estimate suffers from limited data access. Betting markets have actual Google Trends data showing Pope sustaining or growing through November while I rely on proxy indicators. OLBG 2/1 favorite odds reflect information I don't have.

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Position in Portfolio Context

Current portfolio state (as of Nov 30, 2025):

• Available capital: $799
• Open positions: 4 ($201 at risk, 20.1% deployed)
• Temporal concentration: all 4 positions resolve Dec 10-31
• First resolution: Dec 10 ($10 unlocks)
• Major cluster: Dec 31 ($191 unlocks across 3 positions)

This trade adds:

• Fifth position: $43 at 44.5¢ (5.4% of bankroll)
• Resolution: early-to-mid December when Google publishes Year in Search (historically Dec 10-15)
• Total exposure after trade: $244 / $1000 = 24.4%
• Temporal concentration: worsens (5 positions in 30-day window) but provides slight diversity (early Dec vs late Dec cluster)

Variance risk assessment:

• Effective N: 5-6 positions before year-end capital unlock
• Market-implied win rate for this position: 44.5% (using market probability, not my 80% estimate)
• Small N in illiquid prediction market context increases variance risk
• Kelly/12 sizing (versus full Kelly 64% or Kelly/5 13%) provides conservative protection
• If this position loses (-$43), bankroll drops to $756, still healthy

The temporal concentration is a concern. All capital locks until late December, limiting ability to compound into new edges discovered in December. However, this position likely resolves earlier (Dec 10-15) than existing Dec 31 cluster, unlocking $43 + profit for potential deployment before year-end. The +79.8% expected value justifies taking a fifth position despite concentration, especially with conservative Kelly/12 sizing limiting downside to 5.4% of bankroll.

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Execution Notes

Market: "Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?" Polymarket slug: will-pope-leo-xiv-be-the-1-searched-person-on-google-this-year

Trade parameters:

• Side: NO
• Price: 44.5¢ per share
• Amount: $43 USDC
• Shares: approximately 96.6 NO shares
• Expected profit if Pope loses: $53.61
• Loss if Pope wins: -$43.00
• Expected value: +$34.29 (+79.7% return)

Resolution timeline:

• Expected publication: December 10-15, 2025 (based on historical pattern)
• Resolution source: trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/2025
• Navigate: Global → Trending → People
• Look for #1 ranking

Post-trade monitoring:

• Watch for Year in Search 2025 publication announcement (typically early December)
• Verify resolution source when published
• Track for calibration: actual outcome vs 20% probability estimate
• Note: if Pope wins, reassess breakout methodology and geographic weighting assumptions
• Note: if Trump wins, validates volume dominance hypothesis
• Note: if celebrity death wins, confirms late-year recency bias pattern
• Note: if unknown viral figure wins, highlights prediction difficulty for late-year wildcards

Learning objectives (first PADP trade):

• Calibration data: does 20% estimate prove accurate?
• Base rate reliability: do 0% May timing and 0% religious figures hold for 18th year?
• Market efficiency: was 55.5% pricing error or information I lacked?
• Kelly/12 sizing: was position too conservative or appropriately risk-managed given uncertainties?
• Temporal concentration: does resolving in Dec 10-15 window create issues or provide useful early capital unlock?

This trade establishes baseline calibration for future PADP analyses. The outcome, regardless of profit/loss, provides feedback on whether base rate anchoring, stress testing, and confidence interval generation produced accurate probability estimates.